Social kiyasin: analysis hanyoyin

Social Hasashen - wannan shi ne daya daga cikin mafi wuya siffofin methodological bincike yiwuwa na tafiyar matakai da kuma mamaki. A kimiyyar yanayin halitta Hasashen ake amfani da su shirya domin sakamakon wani sabon abu. Alal misali, domin ganewa na wani babban Yiwuwar wata girgizar kasa ko wata volcanic shigowa kamata a sanar da kwashe waje Game da ƙasa. Subject yanki na zamantakewa kiyasin ne zamantakewa tafiyar matakai, sakamakon wanda za a iya shafa, don haka da darajar da irin wannan bincike da ra'ayoyi - ba wai kawai a shirya domin nan gaba facts, amma kuma da ikon Model su.

A yi, da wadannan zamantakewa kiyasin hanyoyin da ake amfani da:

Hanyar gwani kimantawa

Wannan hanya ta kunshi a cikin tarin da kuma nazarin gwani ra'ayi a kan al'amurra da karatu zaman sabon abu. Yadda ya dace da wannan hanya ne m da masu sana'a masana daidai sanya musu tambayoyi kuma replies sarrafa quality.

Hanyar Oracle na Delphi - wani irin Hanyar gwani kiyasin - halin da hadaddun makirci na tambayar masana: don kawar da tasirin da kungiyar a kan ra'ayi na kowane gwani, da masana da aka ba bayyana sunayen wasu m weights, kowane da kansa amsa tambayoyi. Next ne bincike na da martani da kuma definition of a rinjaye matsayi. Bayan da cewa weights sami wannan binciken, da muhawara na masana, wanda ra'ayin bambanta daga rinjaye, kuma da ikon canja da wuri. A hanya an maimaita har ijma'i.

Babban amfani da wannan hanyar - wariya na kungiyar tasiri a kan mutum ra'ayi kamar yadda ba za a iya gane idan dai babu yarjejeniya-ginin.

Wannan hanya za a iya kwatanta su da na karshe zaben na Paparoma. An yi shawarar m kuri'a a karo na uku. Babu shakka cewa a lokacin zaben, babu wani daga cikin 'yan takarar ba su da lokacin da za a yi a "mai kyau hali", wanda zai iya canza ra'ayin masu jefa kuri'a. Kamar yadda al'ada, da hanya ba za a iya kammala har sai da daya daga cikin 'yan takara attains 77 kuri'u. Shi ne ma'ana ya ɗauka cewa cikin dogon lokacin da zamantakewa kiyasin Delphic Hanyar kama da definition of "talakawan zafin jiki ga asibiti."

Social tallan kayan kawa. karin bayanai

Social Hasashen za a iya yi ta hanyar ilmin lissafi tallan kayan kawa. Wannan hanya yale mu mu yi la'akari da yawa hanyar al'amura a cikin hulda da daban-daban dalilai. Kamar na Delphi hanya, akwai wasu matsaloli da dadewa kiyasin. Amma da amfani da wannan hanya shi ne cewa gwani ƙarasa, shiryar da ba kawai nasu farillai, amma kuma sakamakon wani "inji" data - iri-iri na zaɓuɓɓuka saboda nan gaba na diddigin abu.

extrapolation

Riba - ganewa na alamu na diddigin sabon abu da nazarin da tarihi da kuma batun na wadannan bayanan a kan aiwatar da kiyasin. Social kiyasin da extrapolation - ne da yin amfani da hadaddun dabarbari cewa za su iya cimma m sakamakon ba da tabbacin, duk da haka, cikakkar AMINCI.

Social Hasashen - wani tasiri kayan aiki domin gudanar da zaman matakai a hannun waɗanda suka sami damar yin tasiri a gare su.