Financial kiyasin - tattalin arziki shiryawa kayan aiki

Financial kiyasin - wani inji ga yin amfani da takamaiman hanyoyin da lissafi na asali kudi Manuniya. Babban hanyoyin hada econometric kiyasin ilmin lissafi tallan kayan kawa, trending da gwaninta.

Lokacin amfani ilmin lissafi tallan kayan kawa a matsayin tushen lissafin mafi kyau duka yanke shawara model rajista mikakke shirye-shirye. Har ila yau, amfani da sufuri da kuma sadarwa model.

Financial kiyasin shafi yin amfani da tattalin arziki kiyasin dangane da ka'idodi na statistics da kuma tattalin arziki ka'idar. A wasu kalmomin, da lissafi na hari ne da za'ayi a kan tushen da ilimin kididdiga sigogi amfani da daya ko fiye na tattalin arziki canji cewa an ɗauke shi zuwa lissafi kamar yadda dalilai da shafi Hasashen sakamakon. A ƙarfafa muhimmancin bincikar Manuniya, shan la'akari dalilai da cewa suna da wani gagarumin tasiri a kan kudi tafiyar matakai.

Domin gina econometric model amfani da komawa da baya analysis, wanda damar zuwa quantify da Averages, wanda suka fito a cikin tattalin arzikin a gindi lokaci. Don inganta daidaito sakamakon samu a cikin hanyoyin da kiyasin da key kudi Manuniya ya kamata a supplemented da gwani kimomi.

Hanyar da gwani kiyasin amfani ga kira da kuma aiki na ilmin lissafi kiyasin masana - masana a kan wani musamman batun. A tasiri na wannan Hanyar dogara a kan iyawa da kuma kwarewa. A hasashen iya zama isasshe high daidaituwa. Daya kawai drawback to wannan hanya - subjectivism, watau dogara a kan "ji da kuma diraya" gwani, wanda wani lokacin ba zai iya zama batun m bayani. A yi, da aka fi sani da hanyoyin da na gama da mutum gwani kimomi.

Financial kiyasin za a yi la'akari ba a cika, idan Trend ba fahince a Hanyar da ya shafi dogaro da samun kudin shiga da kuma kudi daga irin abubuwan da lokaci. Akwai iri biyu trends - Trend na m girma cewa results daga m canje-canje ko wucin gadi mikakke Trend, samar da bincike na da m canje-canje a cikin cikakkar sharuddan. Babban drawback wannan Hanyar - cikakken watsi da alƙaluma, tattalin arziki da kuma wasu dalilai.

Financial Hasashen za a iya yi ta amfani da ilimin kididdiga lura suna da za'ayi tare da wani tsari. Kayan aiki na ilimin kididdiga kiyasin ne Trend komawa da baya model. Saka wadanda da farko ake kimanta a kan tushen da samuwa ilimin kididdiga tushe, sa'an nan extrapolate yayi na wani takamaiman lokaci tazara.

Kintace ba mu damar duba duk yiwu zabin don inganta kudi tsarin karkashin daban-daban hanyar al'amura na ci gaban tattalin arziki, da tattalin arziki da mahaluži da kasuwar halin da ake ciki. Financial kiyasin iya zama short, Ina nufin, All ilmin lissafi lissafin ake la'akari da tsawon shekara guda, matsakaici-lokaci (3-5 shekaru) kuma dogon lokaci (a kan 5 years). Wannan irin kiyasin ne da za'ayi a kan uku da tattalin arziki da matakan (kasa, yankin da kuma sauki kasuwanci mahaluži).

National matakin samar da lissafin cewa, samar da kudi da albarkatun da ke jihar, ya kafa shugabanci ga su ci gaba. A sakamakon wannan Hasashen ne da tari na jihar kasafin kudin.

Financial kiyasin yankin matakin ne kama da hasashen matakin kasa. A matakin na tattalin arziki abokai kiyasin ne wani kudi management, wadda ta ƙunshi a ci gaban yankunan sha'anin ci gaba da kuma samuwar kudi albarkatun domin nan gaba. Har ila yau, a wannan mataki, da definition a dabarun da zai tabbatar da kudi da kwanciyar hankali na matsayi na sha'anin, kazalika da creditworthiness da solvency.