Mene ne Monte Carlo Hanyar?

A karkashin Monte Carlo Hanyar ne fiye gane kamar yadda hanya daya na ilimin kididdiga tallan kayan kawa, wanda bi da bi aka dogara ne a kan manufar da "black akwatin."

A Monte Carlo Hanyar ne da hannu a lokuta inda amfani da wani analytical model na sabon abu ne da wuya, ko ba zai yiwu ba gaba daya (misali, lokacin da na warware matsaloli daga layi ka'idar, ayyukan bincike, takaita nazarin stochastic matakai, da dai sauransu).

Bari mu bincika a cikin mafi daki-daki, Monte Carlo Hanyar a cikin tattalin arzikin kasar.

Aikace-aikace na hanyar da ilimin kididdiga tallan kayan kawa za a iya kwatanta daga ikon yinsa, daga layi ka'idar. Saboda haka, a ce kana son ka gano yadda tsawo da kuma sau nawa ka bukatar ka jira abokan ciniki a layin a wani (da farko saita) damar da wani store. Wadannan lissafin, da fari, dole in yi tunani game da ko fadada kantin sayar da ya kamata. Kamar yadda ka sani, kusanci saye, yawanci yana da wani bazuwar ko bai tabbata ba, saboda haka, da rarraba abin da ake kira lokaci m, to, akwai rata tsakanin kowane biyu m parishes saye za a iya da kansa kafa, dangane da samuwa bayanai. A daya hannun, da sabis lokaci na kowane abokin ciniki ma yana da wani bazuwar hali, haka ta rarraba kuma za a iya gano. Saboda haka, muna da biyu stochastic tsari, da kai tsaye hulda da cewa halitta duka.

Kamar yadda yi nuna, ta amfani da real-rai Monte Carlo Hanyar iya zama da ka sau da yawa ta hanyar duk yiwuwa, yayin da rike wannan halaye na rarraba. A sakamakon haka zai zama artificially sake haifar da dukan hoto na wannan tsari. Sa'an nan maimaita wannan abin kwaikwaya sake, kowane lokaci canza yanayi, shi ne mai yiwuwa a samu statistics, idan suka tattara a real lokaci.

Haka kuma, za ka iya sake sau da dama ya sake wani wucin gadi hoto na aikin kusan duk wani shagon, sa a cikin yi da Monte Carlo Hanyar. Kwaikwaiyo tallan kayan kawa a cikin wannan hali zai zama maimaita real data. An samu sake sama biyu stochastic tsari. Su madadin hulda a karshe sakamakon sake fitowa a "nuna" da kusan guda yi kamar yadda a hakikanin rai.

Saboda haka, Monte Carlo Hanyar for Research kunshi a wucin gadi tallan kayan kawa da maimaita aikace-aikace na bazuwar realizations. Yana da muhimmanci a lura da cewa abin da ake kira mutum ganin in ba haka ba gaba ka koma ga ilimin kididdiga gwaje-gwaje.

Don gane da abin da ake nufi da wani bazuwar selection inji kamata kawai amfani da ya fi na kowa dan lido. Duk da haka, a yi, kamar yadda mai mulkin, tebur na bazuwar lambobi suna amfani. Bugu da kari, da a halin yanzu sosai rare da musamman shirye-shirye domin kwamfutar da cewa suna daga cikin kwararru kira bazuwar yawan janareto. A gaskiya ma, cikin Monte Carlo Hanyar ne quite sauki, tasiri da kuma sauki amfani, wanda ya haddasa ta tartsatsi amfani, duka a cikin tattalin arzikin da kuma a wasu tukuru kimiyyar.