Hanyoyin takunkumi kan tattalin arzikin Rasha. Sakamakon sanya takunkumi. Tattalin Arziki na Rasha a yau

A wannan shekara, tattalin arzikin Rasha yana fuskantar matsa lamba na duniya. Ana amfani da matakai masu amfani da kasashe kasashen waje zuwa Rasha a wasu nau'i na takunkumi. Mene ne yanayin su? Mene ne tasirin takunkumi kan tattalin arzikin Rasha? Wadanne hanyoyi ne Rasha ta bude domin sabunta canjin yanayi?

Dalilin takunkumi

Bisa ga ra'ayoyin da aka yi a cikin al'ummar masana, dagewar takunkumin da ake yi akan Rasha shine yawancin matsayin siyasa na Rasha game da rikicin Ukrainian. Kasashen yammacin jihohi, yawancin su ne na NATO, sunyi la'akari da cewa hukumomin Rasha ba su yarda da aikata laifuka da Crimea ba, har da yankunan gabashin Ukraine, inda, bisa ga kasashen Atlantic, kasashe masu goyon bayan Rasha suna aiki.

Saboda haka, takunkumi na tattalin arziki da siyasa. A bangare na farko, wannan nau'i ne na daban, a karo na biyu - gabatarwa da jami'ai da kuma hukumomi a cikin takardun takunkumi.

Tsayar da takunkumi

Ka yi la'akari da jerin da aka sanya takunkumi a kan Rasha. Masana sunyi imanin cewa, an kafa matakan farko na matakan da aka dace a nan da nan bayan da Rasha ta goyi bayan raba gardama a cikin Crimea kuma ta hada da wannan yankin a cikin abun da ke ciki. Kasashen Yammacin Turai sunyi la'akari da ayyukan da hukumomi na yankin teku suka yi, har da matsayin Rasha ba bisa doka ba. An yi amfani da takunkumi na takunkumi, kamar yadda masu bincike suka yi imani, tare da kara cigaba da halin da ake ciki a Ukraine.

Takunkumin: barazana ga tattalin arzikin Rasha

Menene sakamakon sakamakon sanya takunkumi ga tattalin arzikin Rasha? Masana sun lura cewa mafi girma matsaloli na iya tashi a cikin shigo da shigo da. Gaskiyar ita ce, tattalin arzikin Rasha ya dogara ne akan sayen kimiyya mai karfi, samfurori na aikin injiniya, magunguna, kuma, har zuwa babban abinci, abinci. Babban abokan na Rasha a shigo da su ne kawai ƙasashen EU, wadanda cewa sun yi amfani da takunkumin da Rasha. Idan matakan tattalin arziki na matakan da suka dace daidai ne, rashin cancantar kayayyakin da aka shigo, masana sun ce, ba za su dauki tsawon lokaci ba.

A bincika mai saka jari

Rikicin takunkumi a kan tattalin arzikin Rasha za a iya fahimta sosai game da batun jawo hankalin kasashen waje. Musamman ma, asusun bashi na Rasha, wanda shine babban alamar nuna kyakkyawan fata ga kasar waje, na iya fama. Sakamakon raguwar zuba jarurruka na iya zama raguwa a GDP, masana tattalin arziki sunyi imani. Harkokin tattalin arziki na Rasha a yau, masanan sun ce, yawanci ya dogara ne ga babban birnin kasar. Tattaunawar kasuwanci na RTS da MICEX sun cika kudaden ruwa a wurare da dama saboda yawan haɓaka na zuba jari na kasashen waje.

Duk da haka, masana sun yi imanin cewa, babban bankin kasashen waje bazai kasance daga asalin yammaci ba. Wata ila akwai yiwuwar sanya hannun masu zuba jarurruka daga kasashen EU da Amurka, daga cikin kasashen kungiyar BRICS, wanda, kamar yadda masu bincike da dama suka dauka, yanzu sun hada da Rasha. Sabili da haka, ragowar rubuce-rubuce a cikin tsarin hanyoyin da aka bunkasa a Amurka da EU bazai taka rawar gani ba wajen jawo hankalin zuba jari.

Takunkumin da tsarin banki

A wace hanya za a iya samun sakamako na takunkumi a kan tsarin banki na Rasha? A wannan bangare, masu sharhi sunyi imanin, yiwuwar fitowar barazanar tattalin arzikin kasar ya fi girma. Gaskiyar ita ce, tsarin banki na Rasha yana cikin cikin duniya (wanda, a gefensa, ya fi kulawa da Amurka da abokan tarayya na Yammacin Turai) da cewa kasashen waje sun sami dama ga hanyoyin sarrafawa da yawa. Asusun ajiyar bankunan Amurka da na Turai suna amfani da kamfanoni na Rasha. Kuma idan kamfanoni da kungiyoyin kudi na ƙasashen Yammacin Turai sun yanke shawara su daskare dukiyar da suka dace, to, masanan sun ce, zai iya haifar da mummunar lalacewa ga kamfanoni na Rasha da ke aiki tare da bankunan kasashen waje.

An gabatar da takunkumin (daga EU) a kan mafi girma na rukunin Rasha da kuma cibiyoyin kudi, kamar VTB, Sberbank, VEB. Musamman ma, tun farkon watan Agusta, an haramta 'yan asalin EU daga samun wasu nau'o'in tsare-tsare na waɗannan cibiyoyin. A cewar masu sharhi, a aikace wannan yana nufin kawai abu daya - wadannan bankunan Rasha sun dakatar da samun dama ga kasuwar jari. Kuma saboda suna da matsala tare da biyan biyan bashin da ake bi na yanzu, rajistar sabon bashi da zuba jarurruka.

VISA - a Rasha?

Ɗaya daga cikin abubuwan da suka fi dacewa game da irin wannan al'amari kamar yadda tasirin takunkumi na tsarin banki na Rasha na iya gani a matsayin ƙuntatawa da dama daga cikin manyan tsarin biyan kuɗi a duniya - VISA da MasterCard - da yawa daga cikin kudade na Rasha da kuma cibiyoyin kudi, kamar Sobinbank, , "Bankin SMP". Kasuwancin wadannan bankuna ba zasu iya biya ta amfani da tashoshi na duniya ba. Duk da haka, masana sun yarda da cewa gaba daya katse daga Rasha kasuwar na visa, da MasterCard so ba. Idan wannan ya faru, to, akwai barazana ga zaman lafiyar tsarin tsarin EU.

Wata illar kuma da sanya takunkumi a bankuna na iya zama na rage na rance ga Rasha kamfanoni a kasashen yamma. Yanayin kuɗi a bankunan kasashen yammacin Turai suna cikin mafi yawan lokuta da suka fi dacewa ga waɗanda ke cikin rukunin Rasha (akasari saboda ƙananan ƙimar kuɗi). Duk da haka, tasiri na takunkumin takunkumi a kan kasuwancin da ke ba da tallafi bazai da mahimmanci idan masu cin kasuwa su iya hulɗa da wasu kasuwanni dangane da rance. Ɗaya daga cikin manyan masana Rasha sun fi kallo na kasar Sin.

Shin dukkan bankunan ne?

Taimaka wa bankuna na Rasha dangane da takunkumin da Babban Bankin ya shirya. Musamman, a cikin kafofin yada labaran da Babban Bankin Bankin ya bayar da maganganu cewa, idan ya cancanta, za a iya amfani da tanadin kuɗin waje na kasa da kasa don wannan dalili. The most bankuna na Rasha Federation sanar da cewa sun kasance a shirye don takunkumi. Aikin Sberbank, musamman, ya sanar da cewa ma'aikata yana da wadataccen albarkatun, gwaninta da gwaninta don ci gaba da aiki a halin yanzu tattalin arziki da siyasa. Gazprombank da VTB kuma sun tabbatar wa jama'a cewa ayyukan da Amurka da EU ba za su shafi tasirin kudi na cibiyoyin ba. Don haka, tasirin takunkumi kan tattalin arzikin Rasha dangane da bankin banki bazai da muhimmanci sosai.

Hakkoki da Hanyoyi

Bisa ga yawancin masana harkokin tattalin arziki, takunkumi na EU na da kyakkyawar damar kafa kasuwanci a cikin tattalin arzikin Rasha, wanda, saboda tsananin mayar da hankali kan fitar da man fetur, ba ya bunkasa yadda ya kamata.

Babban mahimmanci, masanan sunyi imani, ba su kasance a cikin matsayi na canzawa ba. Rasha tana da wadataccen albarkatu - duk da batun samar da kayan aiki da albarkatun kasa, da kuma dangane da bangaren kimiyya, don samar da yawan kayan da aka shigo daga kasashen waje.

Amsar amsawa

Waɗanne hanyoyi ne da Rasha zata iya hamayya da takunkumi? Da farko dai ya kamata a lura cewa a shekarar 2006, tun kafin a fara bayyana yanayin da ake ciki na rikicin Ukrainian, da dokar da ta dace akan yanayin tattalin arziki da za a iya amfani dasu idan kasar zata bukaci magance rashin adalci, wanda hakan ya zama barazana Bukatun Rasha, a matakin zamantakewa na kasa da kasa. Sabili da haka, abubuwan da ke amfani da su a matsayin maƙasudin shigar da takunkumi ga Rasha sun kasance. Bugu da ƙari, akwai shaidar cewa tsarin Majalisar tarayya na aiki don ƙirƙirar sababbin ka'idojin shari'a wanda zai iya fadada yanayin da ke cikin rukunin Rasha a karkashin matsalolin duniya. Musamman ma, akwai ra'ayi cewa sabon dokokin na iya hada da tanadi da izinin ganimar dukiya na kamfanonin Yammacin Turai a cikin Rasha (duka jama'a da masu zaman kansu).

Amsa ga takunkumi

Duk da cewa an yanke hukunci kan dalilai na sanya takunkumin da gwamnatin Rasha ta dauka, bisa ga maganganun manyan jami'an, rashin amincewa da rikice-rikicen dabaru, da magunguna da ƙasashen Yammacin Turai, kamar waɗanda suke da Rasha. Musamman ma, a lokacin da aka fara amfani da matakai na kasa da kasa, hukumomi na Rasha sun yanke shawarar tsara jerin sunayen mutanen da ke da 'yan asalin Yammacin Turai, wadanda aka hana su shiga yankin Rasha.

A lokacin da VISA da MasterCard, kamar yadda muka fada a sama, ya dakatar da yin aiki da katunan bankuna da dama na Rasha, hukumomin Rasha sun yanke shawarar karfafa aikin, na farko, don samar da tsarin biya na gida, kuma na biyu, don jawo hankalin ma'aikatar sufurin jiragen kasa na kasar Sin - UnionPay, Wanne zai iya zama mai tsada ga masu jagorancin duniya. Wannan zai sa visa da kuma MasterCard ne muhimmi, a cewar wasu masana tattalin arziki, da lalacewar - a cikin daruruwan miliyoyin daloli.

Babban lamari mafi girma na rukunin Rasha shi ne haramta kan shigo da Rasha a cikin yawancin kayayyakin abinci, wanda yawancin masana'antu na EU ke samar da su (da kuma kamfanoni na Kanada, Australia da kuma Amurka). A farkon watan Agusta, shugaban Rasha ya ba da doka ta dace. Jerin kayayyaki da suka fadi a karkashin jirgin ruwa sun hada da kayan abinci iri-iri - nama, kayan kiwo, kifi, kayan lambu, 'ya'yan itatuwa. A cikin kudaden kuɗi, yawan adadin yawan kuɗin da aka shigo da shi, masu bincike sun lasafta, a lokacin gabatar da kudaden shiga shi ne dala biliyan 9.

Har ila yau, a watan Agusta, an yi gyare-gyare a fannin masana'antu. Musamman ma, a cikin sashi na sayen kayayyaki, an dakatar da tufafi daga yadudduka, fata da furs. Gaskiya ne, masana basu kula da wannan motsi daga hukumomin Rasha ba don magance takunkumin kai tsaye, tun da yake haɗin gwiwar ya shafi kayan aiki daga dukan ƙasashe, ba tare da wadanda suke tare da Rasha ba, sun kasance membobin kungiyar kwastam, kuma ba kawai mutanen yamma ba.

Sakamakon "unsanctions" ga EU

Gaskiyar cewa takunkumin yammaci a cikin tattalin arzikin Rasha zai iya jawo matsala a matakin shigarwa, mun riga mun ce, yana nuna yawan masana'antu a matsayin misali. Amma masu baƙi zasu fitar da kansu da kansu, bari mu ce irin kayan gini na na'ura, suna ji a lokaci ɗaya. Wadanda suka kawo kayan aiki zuwa Rasha? Menene sakamakon yiwuwar takunkumi ga EU? A cewar daya daga Analyst rahoton Reuters The, dadi Turawa mafi m so ba. Daya daga cikin abokan hulɗa na Rasha a cikin tattalin arziki shine Jamus. Akwai alƙalai: kimanin kusan ma'aikata dubu 300 a Jamus sun nuna yadda ma'aikata ke aiki a yankunan da ke hulɗa da Rasha. Masana sunyi imanin cewa fitar da Jamus daga Rasha zuwa Rasha zai iya karuwa da yawancin kashi goma (yawanci a bangaren injiniya). Bugu da} ari, akwai ra'ayi cewa, rashin ha] in zumunci da {asar Rasha, ba zai da tasirin gaske game da tattalin arzikin {asar ta FRG ba. Hakanan ne saboda yawan rabon da Rasha ke ciki a yawan kudin Jamus ba ta wuce kashi 4% ba. Ta haka ne, masanan suna ganin tasirin takunkumi a kan harkokin kasuwanci a Turai.

Abincin "unsanctions"

Ka yi la'akari da batun game da mafi tsanani, bisa ga masana, ƙaddamarwa daga hukumomin Rasha - da dakatar da shigo da samfurori daga EU. Masu bincike masu yawa sunyi imanin cewa masu samar da aikin gona na Turai sun sha wahala daga tasirin. Ya ba da dama ga Rasha saboda yawancin su sun tabbatar da samun riba, da kuma wasu kamfanoni, da kuma babban magungunan tallace-tallace. Gano masu sayarwa a wasu kasuwanni, masu sharhi sunyi imanin, masana'antun masana'antu daga EU zasu kasance a cikin gajeren lokaci. Sabili da haka a nan gaba makomarsu ba zata kasance mai amfani ba.

Foundation of Turai

Bugu da} ari, yawancin masana sun yi imanin cewa, sakamakon} ir} ire-} ir} ire na {asar EU, ba zai kasance da muhimmanci ba, musamman, tasirin takunkumi ga tattalin arzikin Rasha. Kasashen da aka fitar daga aikin gona daga Tarayyar Turai zuwa Rasha shine kasa da kashi 5 cikin tattalin arziki na wannan ƙungiyar siyasa. Kuma wannan shi ne duk da cewa Rasha ita ce kasuwar kasuwa mafi girma a wannan sashin na EU a cikin wannan sashi. Akwai kuma shaida cewa kungiyar Tarayyar Turai za ta rama wajan asarar da ta samu daga '' unsanctions 'daga Jamhuriyar Rasha, ta hanyar amfani da kuɗin kuɗin da aka ƙaddara. Gaskiya ne, girmansa, masu sharhi sun ce, ba ma ban sha'awa ba - kudin Tarayyar Jamus miliyan 400. Ƙasar da za ta iya shan wahala daga "rashin adalci" ya fi karfi da sauran - Finland. By nagarta na yanayin kusanci da shi ne a jihar da kuma Rasha Federation da kusa da tattalin arziki a tsakaninsu. Kimanin kashi 25 cikin dari na fitarwa daga Finland sun aika zuwa Rasha. A daidai wannan lokaci, rabon abinci a ciki ya kasa da kashi 3%.

Abubuwan da suka dace don isar da kansu

Mene ne tasirin takunkumi kan aikin noma na Rasha? Wasu masana sun yi imanin cewa, abincin da ake amfani da shi daga masu amfani da ita daga EU ya bude babbar dama ga manoma na Rasha. A cikin yankuna da dama, an cire kullun kasuwa, ko akalla ya zama ƙasa da ƙasa. Akwai ra'ayi na cewa masu samar da aikin gona daga Rasha basu riga sun shirya don karuwa ba, kuma a cikin wannan yanayin akwai abubuwa biyu masu yiwuwa: da cika kaya a cikin kuɗin masu sayarwa daga kasashe waɗanda ba su fada a karkashin jirgin ruwa, ko, wanda ba shi da kyawawa ga tattalin arziki Ana haifar da gazawar kayayyaki. Kuma, sabili da haka, karuwar farashin.

Harkokin tattalin arzikin Rasha a yau, yawancin masana sunyi imani, ba za su iya tabbatar da cikakken tasiri mai tasiri ba - ciki har da aikin noma. Masana sharhi sun ce karuwa a sayar da farashin samfurori daban-daban ya faru a cikin lokaci mai sauri tun lokacin gabatar da "unsanctions". Bisa ga kimanin kimanin kashi 30 cikin 100, kimanin kashi 30 cikin dari na yawancin kayayyaki sun iya karuwar farashi daga karshen shekarar 2014. A matsakaici, samfurori da suke samar da babban kwandon, farashin farashin zai iya zama kusan 15%. Akwai yiwuwar, masu sharhi sunyi imanin, cewa ingancin samfurori da aka gabatar a kan ɗakunan ajiya zasu sauke. A Rasha, da kuma a ƙasashe da yawa inda ake son shigo da kaya, tsarin samar da kayayyaki ba su da matukar damuwa a Turai.