A tattalin arzikin: ra'ayi, haddasawa da kuma sakamakon

A tattalin arzikin na wani, ko mafi cigaban kasashe, ba ƙarama bace. Ta Figures ake kullum canja. Tattalin arziki da koma bayan tattalin arziki bada hanya zuwa tasowar batun rikicin - ganiya dabi'u na girma. Cyclical ci gaban halin da kasuwar irin management. Canza matakin na aikin yana da wani tasiri a kan masu amfani da 'sayen ikon, wadda take kaiwa a nuna wa wani karu ko karuwa a farashin abinci. Kuma wannan misali ne guda kawai na dangantaka Manuniya. Kamar yadda na yau, mafi yawan} asashe ne jari hujja, irin tattalin arziki Concepts a matsayin koma bayan tattalin arziki da kuma dawo da, su dace da bayanin da kuma ci gaban tattalin arzikin duniya.

A tarihin nazarin tattalin arziki hawan keke

Idan wani kwana na GDP na kowace ƙasa, za mu iya ganin cewa ci gaban da wannan nuna alama ba m. Kowane tattalin arziki da sake zagayowar kunshi wani lokaci na fadowa zamantakewa samarwa da kuma dawo da. Duk da haka, ta duration ba fayyace haka. Hawa da sauka a cikin harkokin kasuwanci ne talauci ake iya faɗi kuma sababbu. Duk da haka, akwai da dama Concepts cewa bayyana cyclical yanayin tattalin arziki da kuma lokaci na wadannan matakai. A farko na lokaci-lokaci crises lura Jean Sismondi. "Classics" ƙaryata game da wanzuwar hawan keke. Su sukan hade da wani lokaci na tattalin arzikin da waje dalilai, kamar yaki. Sismondi kuma kusantar da hankali ga abin da ake kira "tsoro a 1825", na farko na kasa da kasa rikicin, wanda ya faru a peacetime. Don zo kama karshe, kuma Robert Owen. Ya yi imani da cewa koma bayan tattalin arziki ne saboda overproduction da underconsumption saboda rashin daidaito a samun kudin shiga rarraba. Owen bayar da shawarar da gwamnatin sa baki da kuma gurguzu hanyar noma. Lokaci-lokaci crises halayyar jari-hujja, ya zama tushen da aikin Karla Marksa, wanda ya kira ga juyin juya halin kwaminisancin.

Rashin aikin yi, koma bayan tattalin arziki da kuma rawar da gwamnati wajen magance wa] annan al'amurra ne batu na Dzhona Meynarda Keynes da mabiyansa. Yana da wannan tattalin arziki makaranta systematized da ra'ayin crises kuma miƙa da farko m matakai don cire su illa. Keynes ko jarraba su a yi a Amurka a lokacin babban mawuyacin na 1930-1933 ta.

babban zamani

A tattalin arziki da sake zagayowar za a iya raba hudu lokaci. Daga cikin su:

• Farfadowar tattalin arzikin (dawo). Wannan lokaci ne halin da girma da yawan aiki da kuma aikin yi. The kumbura kudi ne low. Buyers neman don yin sayayya da aka dage a lokacin rikicin. All m ayyukan da sauri biya wa kansu.
• Ganiya. Wannan lokaci ne halin da matsakaicin harkokin kasuwanci. The yawan marasa aikin yi a wannan mataki ne musamman kananan. Samar iya aiki da mafi sauke. Duk da haka, za a fara nuna korau al'amurran: kumbura kuma inganta gasar, ta ƙara payback lokaci.
• A tattalin arzikin (rikicin, koma bayan tattalin arziki). Wannan lokaci ne halin da rage a harkokin kasuwanci. Fadowa fitarwa da kuma zuba jari, da kuma rashin aikin yi yana tasowa. Mawuyacin ake kira da zurfi da kuma tsawo koma bayan tattalin arziki.
• Kasa. Wannan zamani ne halin da m na harkokin kasuwanci. A wannan mataki, akwai magangara mafi ƙasƙanci yawan marasa aikin yi da kuma masana'antu. A wannan lokacin sai ya ciyar da wani ragi na dukiya, wanda aka kafa a lokacin ganiya da harkokin kasuwanci. Babban birnin kasar daga fanni na kasuwanci gudana a cikin bankuna. Wannan take kaiwa zuwa wani karu a sha'awa a kan basussuka. Yawanci, wannan lokaci ne ba dade. Duk da haka, akwai ban. Alal misali, "Great mawuyacin" tsawon shekaru goma.

Kamar wancan tattalin arziki da sake zagayowar za a iya halin da lokaci tsakanin jihohin biyu na wannan kasuwanci. Dole ka fahimci cewa, duk da cyclical halitta a cikin dogon gudu GDP o ƙarin tabbatar da tashi. Irin tattalin arziki Concepts matsayin koma bayan tattalin arziki, ciki da kuma rikicin ba zai bace ba, amma kowane lokaci da maki ne mafi girma.

Properties hawan keke

Dauke da tattalin arziki da hawa da sauka sãɓã wa jũna a duka biyu a cikin yanayi da kuma a cikin tsawon lokaci. Duk da haka, wasu na kowa siffofin za a iya gano daga gare su. Daga cikin su:

• Cyclicity ne halayyar dukan ƙasashe da kasuwar irin management.
• Crises ne makawa kuma dole sabon abu. Su inganta tattalin arzikin kasar, tilasta shi don zuwa dukan manyan matakan na ci gaba.
• Kowane sake zagayowar kunshi hudu bulan.
• Cyclicity saboda ba daya, amma da dama daban-daban dalilai.
• Saboda duniya a halin yanzu rikicin a daya kasar zai babu makawa tasiri a kan tattalin arziki da halin da ake ciki a sauran.

rarrabuwa na lokaci

A zamani tattalin arzikin ciyarwa fiye da dubban daban-daban kasuwanci hawan keke. Daga cikin su:

• Short-lokaci hawan keke Dzhozefa Kitchina. Su šauki game 2-4 shekaru. Mai suna bayan da masanin kimiyya ya gano su. The wanzuwar wadannan Kitchin hawan keke da farko ya bayyana da canji na zinariya reserves. Duk da haka, to date an yi imani da cewa su suna lalacewa ta hanyar jinkiri a samun kamfanonin ake bukata don yin kasuwanci bayanai mafita. Alal misali, ka yi la'akari da jikewa na kayayyaki kasuwar. A wannan halin da ake ciki, masu kera da rage samar da kundin. Duk da haka, bayani game da jikewa na kasuwar bai zo nan da nan, amma tare da wani bata lokaci ba. Wannan take kaiwa zuwa wani rikicin saboda bayyanar ragi kaya.
• Medium-Clement Juglar hawan keke. Su ma suna girmama na tattalin arziki wanda ya gano su. Su zama ne saboda da bata lokaci ba tsakanin tallafi na yanke shawara a kan adadin zuba jari a gyarawa babban birnin kasar da kuma kai tsaye halittar iyawarsa. Duration Juglar sake zagayowar ne game da 7-10 shekaru.
• Rhythms Saminu Kuznets. Suna mai suna bayan da Nobel Prize lashe wanda ya gano su a 1930. Masana kimiyya bayyana su zama alƙaluma da matakai da kuma hawa da sauka a cikin shiri masana'antu. Duk da haka, da zamani tattalin arziki yi imani da babban dalilin Kuznets lilo inganci fasahar. Duration - game 15-20 shekaru.
• Long tãguwar ruwa Nikolaya Kondrateva. Sun kasance a bude ga masana kimiyya, a cikin wanda girmamawa da kuma mai suna a cikin 1920s. Duration - game 40-60 shekaru. A wanzuwar K-tãguwar ruwa saboda muhimmanci binciken da kuma masu dangantaka da canje-canje a cikin tsarin da jama'a da samar.
• Forrester hawan keke zaunanniya shekaru 200. Su zama ne saboda da canji na kayan da makamashi.
• Toffler hawan keke zaunanniya 1000-2000 shekaru. Su zama ne saboda da muhimman canje-canje a ci gaba da wayewa.

dalilai

A tattalin arzikin - shi ne wani ɓangare daga tattalin arziki. Cyclicity saboda wadannan dalilai:

• External da ciki kona. Wani lokacin ake magana a kai a matsayin hasken dake fitowa ga tattalin arzikin kasar. Wannan fasaha cimma gaci cewa zai iya canza yanayin noma, da gano sababbin makamashi da albarkatun, fadace-fadace da kuma yaƙe-yaƙe.
• Unplanned karuwa a zuba jari a gyarawa dukiya da inventories na dukiya da albarkatun kasa, misali, a dangane da canje-canje a cikin hukuncinSa.
• Canje-canje a farashin da dalilai na samarwa.
• Yanayi yanayin da girbi a fannin aikin gona.
• The girma da tasiri na kwadago da kuma, sabili da haka, mafi girma lada, kuma da karuwa a cikin tabbacin aiki.

The ƙi ci gaban tattalin arziki: manufar da ainihi

Daga cikin zamani malaman har yanzu babu wani yarjejeniya a matsayin abin da ya ƙunshi wani rikicin. A Soviet adabi tun rugujewar Tarayyar Soviet ta mamaye ra'ayi cewa tattalin arzikin downturns ne na hali kawai ga jari hujja kasashe, da kuma a karkashin gurguzu irin management zai iya zama "girma sha raɗaɗin." Don kwanan wata, akwai wani muhawara a tsakanin masana harkokin tattalin arziki, game da ko da rikicin a kan micro-matakin halayyar. Jigon da tattalin arziki da rikicin da aka bayyana a cikin wuce haddi na wadata idan aka kwatanta da tara bukatar. Raguwar gani a cikin taro bankruptcies, tanã fita rashin aikin yi da kuma ragewa sayen ikon. Rikicin ne take hakkin da tsarin balance. Saboda haka, yana tare da wani yawan zamantakewa da tattalin arziki tunkaro. Kuma sabõda ƙuduri za bukatar real ciki da waje canje-canje.

rikicin ayyuka

A downturn na tattalin arziki da sake zagayowar ne m, a yanayi. Shi aikin da wadannan ayyuka:

• Kashewa ko ingantaccen canji na rabu amfani sassa na data kasance tsarin.
• Amincewa da farko rauni sabon abubuwa.
• tsarin gwajin ƙarfi.

kuzarin kawo cikas

A lokacin da raya kasa, da rikicin da yake faruwa ta hanyar da dama, saukarwa:

• Latent. A wannan mataki, kawai preconditions an maturing, suka har yanzu bai karya fita.
• Ya fadi lokaci. A wannan mataki, da saba wa juna suna samun ƙarfi, da haihuwa da kuma sabon sassa na tsarin zo a cikin adawa.
• Period magance rikicin. A wannan lokaci, da tsarin zama mafi barga, ne abubuwan da ake bukata domin Tarurrukan a cikin tattalin arzikin kasar.

A tattalin arzikin da nasa sakamakon

All crises da wani tasiri a kan dangantaka da jama'a. A lokacin da koma bayan tattalin arziki, hukumomin gwamnatin suna zama yafi m fiye da kasuwanci, a cikin aiki kasuwa. Mutane da yawa cibiyoyin suna samun mafi m, wanda kara exacerbates halin da ake ciki. Kuma ya karu da shahararsa na soja saboda gaskiyar cewa matasa zama wuya a samu kansu a cikin halin rayuwa. Kuma wani girma yawan addini mutane. A shahararsa ta sanduna, gidajen cin abinci da kuma cafes a cikin rikicin da dama. Duk da haka, cheap barasa mutane suna fara saya more. Rikicin yana da mummunan tasiri a kan dama da kuma al'adu, saboda da kaifi dakushe sayen ikon.

Hanyoyi don shawo kan recessions

Babban aiki na jihar a wani rikicin ne a warware data kasance zamantakewa da tattalin arziki rarrabu, kuma taimake mafi m segments na al'ummar jihar. Keynesians ni'imar aiki baki a cikin tattalin arzikin kasar. Sun yi imani da cewa tattalin arzikin aiki za a iya mayar da jihar umarni. Monetarists so na more kasuwar-tushen m. Sun tsara da kudi wadata. Duk da haka, dole ne mu gane cewa dukan waɗannan ne wucin gadi matakan. Duk da cewa crises ne wani ɓangare na kowane kamfani da kuma jihar a matsayin dukan kamata da wani dogon lokacin da shirin.