Abin da ya yi tare da rubles? Abin da ya yi tare da ruble yau? Ruble da dama - abin da ya yi?

Taken fall na ruble a cikin 'yan shekaru quite sau da yawa yakan a cikin latsa. Publications ne daban-daban daga m Bafilisten ( "Abin da ya yi tare da rubles?"), Don a isasshe sosai, kuma hikimar tantance. Wannan labarin ne aka yi nufi ga samar da tsanaki tari a kan batun, dangane da samuwa wallafe a Rasha latsa.

A Rasha ruble ne saboda dabarun

Analytics - wani lokacin paradoxical abu. Shirye amsa wannan tambaya yana mai zalla Rasha, Mun fuskanci lighting ma'abutanta, kara daga bakin ... Yammacin Analyst Chris Weafer. A ra'ayinsa, rashin tsarin canje-canje a cikin Rasha tattalin arzikin da ya balaga, kuma Ya riƙi siffar zuwa mutuža cewa 2014 ya zama da su aiwatar da su hukunci: ko dai za su auku a wannan lokaci, ko kuma bai faruwa a duk (ga tunani: a shekara ta 2016 - majalisar zabe a shekara ta 2018 - zaben shugaban kasa).

A lokaci guda, kamar yadda masana kimiyya ce, ya kamata a lura da cewa, sake fasalin zai haifar kawai a 2-3 shekaru.

Yana da wani motsi daga m engine na ci gaban tattalin arziki - wani m hanya-tushen tattalin arzikin - wani tushen sabon engine na ci gaban tattalin arziki. Daya daga cikin kayayyakin aiki, na wannan reorientation ne ruble. Menene ya kamata na yi da shi? Wannan tambaya yana da biyu madadin amsoshi.

1. Position da magoya bayan neoliberalism (as wakilta Central Bank, ma'aikatun, oligarchy) an rage zuwa dogon lokaci na gyara, daidai da, - da ƙaddamar da ruble a "free iyo".

2. Conservatives wakilta jami'an tsaro, burokrasi, jihar damuwa, ayan karfi da hana canji.

A key sako na farko na kawo canji shi ne ganin da waɗanda da sauransu cewa zaune idly kan m fiye da maimaitawa. Don ƙirƙirar Rasha zuba jari da albarkatun da ake bukata yanayi biyu: high farashin man da kuma cheap ruble. Saboda haka, an ba ni da umurnin: "Forward!"

Ƙaddamar kushin Rasha tattalin arzikin

Lalle ne, haƙĩƙa, da macroeconomic halin da ake ciki a kasar da aka kiyasta a farkon. Ci gaban da tattalin arzikin da gudummawar da wani goma-shekara zaman lafiyar da ruble. Rasha ta stock kasuwar m zuwa masu zaman kansu masu zuba jari. Amassed mai ban sha'awa duniya reserves - $ 500 biliyan.

Rasha ruble a nan gaba na jiransu integrative aiki - guda kudin ga duk kasashe na Kwastan Union.

Babban Bankin ruble siyasa

A farko sakon mu tattaunawa ya zama manufofin da Babban Bankin - jihar jiki shirya da wurare dabam dabam da kuma shafi cikin shakka daga kasa da kasa da sauran ago. The shugaban babban banki na Rasha Elvira Nabiullina ya sha nanata bayyana ta babban maki.

Suka duba ta hanyar da hukuma hangen nesa da manufa na Rasha ta kasa kudin a matsayin iyo, kada a haɗe administratively da tamanin da dollar kuma Yuro. A cikin tambaya: "Abin da ya yi tare da rubles," da shugaban babban bankin amsa da cewa haka, yin amfani da wani m kudin, don karfafa tattalin arziki, da kuma cewa, bi da bi, za su karfafa da ruble.

A sabon musayar kudi siyasa na Central Bank

Fundamentally sabon hangen zaman a kan manufa na kasa kudin miƙa "The main kwatance na manufofin kudi daga 2014 zuwa 2016.". Wannan daftarin aiki ya tabbatar da kayyade ta Bank of Rasha siyasa daga niyya da ruble musayar kudi to kumbura niyya. Yana da aka shirya a shekarar 2015, su matsa zuwa wani cikakken iyo inji na tsari na kasa kudin. By yin sama-da aka ambata shirin, a Janairu 1914 Babban Bankin ya tsaya kasashen waje musayar shiga tsakani don kula da musayar kudi, da bi, da ruble da dama. Abin da idan tattalin arziki Manuniya ga Yuro yankin kasashen a lokaci guda nuna wani tabbatacce Trend? Rasha ya kamata a kiyaye da dabarun.

The hukuma view: dalilai domin karkatar da ruble

fadowa ruble batun shugaban bankin na Rasha ya kira a kan ma'ana kimanta: ba ruble fadi, kuma Ya ƙarfafã da dollar da Yuro. Kamar yadda ka sani, farkon na aiwatar aza rage sayan dukiya na Tarayya Reserve System of Amurka bisa ga manufar "gwada yawa easing" - har zuwa 65 dala biliyan a watan ..

Tun karshen shekarar 2012 karshe tsara da redistribution na duniya ci gaban cibiyoyin. Babban injuna na ci gaban tattalin arziki sun Amurka da kuma Turai. A Rasha tattalin arziki, kazalika da kasashen Asiya a shekarar 2013 ya nuna stagnation nufi. A wannan mahallin da dama da kuma wani slowdown na kasar Sin.

Elvira Nabiullina, da key factor ga ci gaban da kasar kudin gan a haramta motsa ci gaban tattalin arziki. Yana nuna gwaji tattalin arziki yin amfani magance halin da ake ciki: da predominance na Rasha fitarwa a kan kayayyakin da take shigowa. A jihar yanke shawarar abin da ya yi tare da rubles, a manual yanayin, ma'ana kimantawa da halin da ake ciki.

A cikin gajeren lokaci wannan Trend zai ƙayyade riba na girma exporters na raw kayan. Amma a cikin dogon lokaci da ruble kamata "jingina" a kan tattalin arziki da ayyuka na sauran, ba-farko sassa na Rasha tattalin arzikin.

A cewar Rasha bankers (Anton Mukhin, finsovetnik Irkutsk reshe na BCS Premier Irkutsk) aiki matsa lamba a kan ruble ne tabbas. Its girma a cikin dogon lokaci kamata taimakawa wajen wani bege mai kyau a fitarwa na man fetur da kuma "reserves ga horar" na Central Bank. Banki tabbata: jihar na kudi dabarun envisaged shi a matsayin wani mataki da cewa ruble fadi. Abin da ya yi - za mu gani a gaba matakai na Central Bank.

A wucin gadi depreciation na tabbatar da nazarin America_Merrill_Lynch banki manazarta wanda ta macroeconomic tallan kayan kawa m cewa na biyu da na hudu da kwata na wannan shekara, Rasha farashin man zai tashi.

A ruble da 'yan wasa na Rasha kasuwar

A daidai wannan lokaci, shugaban babban bankin gayyaci dukan 'yan wasa a Rasha kasuwar tare da fahimce magance matsalar faduwar ruble. Ta tuna da cewa babban bankin - ba kawai batu a waje musayar kasuwa. Its aiki - tsallakar don a kimanta kuma magance gajere hawa da sauka na kasa kudin, game da shi, rike da wani barga halin da ake ciki don kasuwanci.

A dogon lokacin da Trend na dakushe da darajar, kamar yadda aka nuna ta hanyar Elvira Nabiullina, da ake dangantawa da wani tsarin tasiri a kan fitarwa-daidaitacce raw kayan tattalin arzikin. Wannan ne amsar da kalubale na lokaci :. "Abin da ya yi tare da ruble" da ake dangantawa da wani m tsarin sake yi na dukan tattalin arzikin a cikin hadaddun.

Game da dabarun kasuwanci da kuma gidaje da wani fadowa ruble

Babu shakka cewa rauni ruble ne mai iko liba ga fitarwa-daidaitacce kasar, da manufar - don tallafa wa da m. Saboda haka ya ce Evgeny Bolotin, shugaban Urals Bank Union. Ya yi imanin cewa da hukuncin wani madadin hanya (gyara / ba gyara) yake a fili: bukatar ci gaban masana'antu da kuma biyan haraji, rakiyar sarrafawa fall na ruble. Abin da idan a lokaci guda zama mafi tsada shigo? Sauya ta Rasha samar.

Yanzu da matsayi na 'yan kasuwa a Securities kasuwar. A daya hannun, a matsayin shawara ta hanyar Radik Akhmetshin, Director of Stock Market Association Urals kasuwanci samun damar sa da tushe na ta gaba girma ta sayen hannun jari a fadowa farashin. Lalle ne, a cikin shakka daga su nan gaba zai lalle girma. Kwanan nan, ikirarin da kuma Rasha Ministan kudi Anton Siluanov. Duk da haka, Rasha ta manyan tattalin arziki da sa ran wani m ragewar darajar kuɗi na kasa kudin a 2014 zuwa 20%.

A daya hannun, da fadowa ruble matsa lamba a kan kasuwar jari na Rasha, a gaskiya - kawai kalmomi. A gaskiya, duk da haka, domin mafi yawan 'yan wasan da - da ba mazauna, stock farashin fada batun, kasashen waje masu zuba jari da aka tilasta "dauka a kan".

Ruble da dama - abin da ya yi? 2014, hakikar

Ta yaya Rasha yawan jama'a a fall na ruble? Wannan tambaya an yi karatu Vladimir Zotov (Directorate of Fin / cibiyoyin da kuma zuba jari banki na Ural). Bisa ga banki, a fili ya karu da bukatar tsabar kudi, a lokaci guda dauka karamin sashi na ajiya. Da wannan bango, akwai wani hali ba don canja wurin na ruble adibas da daloli, ko a evrovye. Kamar yadda wani hoto na sama, ya bayyana da wadannan statistics: idan Rasha ruble adibas na yawan ne game da 16,3 tiriliyan. rubles, da kudin, fassara a musayar kudi na Central Bank a rubles, -. kawai 3.3 tiriliyan. goga., ko 20%.

Duk da haka, da Russia sun samu da kuma tsira ga fiye da wani rikicin, har yanzu tambayar: "The ruble da dama - abin da ya yi?" Amsar ne gargajiya: Ya kamata sarrafa su kudi. Shi ne m, misali, wadannan dabarun: rabin na kudi sa a kan ruble ajiya, daya daga cikin sauran bariki - a dollar ajiya, da saura - a evrovy.

A matsayi na dan kasa talakawan

Yarda, riga yau ze m "matsalolin" compatriots a kai a kai Mota kasashen waje domin yin wannan shigo da sayayya, wanda za su iya yi a Rasha, amma a mafi farashin. Su, ka sani, fadi sayen ikon idan tana mayar rubles.

Mutane da yawa 'yan kasa na jihar, da bambanci ga na farko, da rashin kudi aminci matashi. Domin su dacewa shi ne wani matsala - abin da ya yi tare da ruble yau? A ka'ida, kudi maki 30 dubu. Rub. za ka iya ci gaba da tsabar kudi a gida.

Yanzu la'akari da halin da ake ciki inda da samuwa kudi daga 'yan ƙasa har yanzu akwai. Su kwashe ruble adibas daga banki kada ta kasance. A karkashin sharuddan da ajiya yarjejeniya, qarasa shi kafin lokaci, da banki abokin ciniki ba aikatãwa sha'awa. Wannan zai kawai kara shi da hannuwansu kansa kawai.

Idan baku ko da yaushe ya so ya saya a shigo da mota ku yana da muhimmanci musamman tambaya: "Abin da ya yi tare da ruble yau" amsar wannan tambaya shi ne taƙaitaccen: "Buy!" Lalle ne, m fall na kasa kudin zai ƙayyade Yunƙurin a cikin kudin na mafarki.

Nagari - ba da shawarar

Idan ka tara gwani shawara ga 'yan'uwanmu' yan kasa, to gani fiye da ƙirƙirar wa kansu wani gefe na aminci a cikin fall na kasa kudin, to, duk za a rage zuwa guda biyu sosai sauki abubuwa.

A farko ba da shawarar zuba jari a illiquid kudi. Alal misali, samun kudin shiga daga dukiya mai yiwuwa ne kawai a babban jinkiri na lokaci. Bugu da ƙari, tare da hauhawar farashin kaya, bisa manufa, an ba da shawarar sayar da dukiya. A wani rikicin, da muhimmancin da kudi bukatar maloprognozirovana.

Kuma duk da haka, abin da ya yi tare da ragewar darajar kuɗi da ruble? A matsayi na biyu ya nuna cewa da shawarar yanki na zuba jari kudi na yawan masu ruwa dukiya: ajiya a banki, mai daraja karafa, PIF-s da zuba jari da kamfanoni.

Kuma yaya ba tare da riga gargajiya ƙarni-old kyau da haihuwa shawara: Jama'a za su koyi ajiye, fasa wata-wata goma na albashi ga wani ruwa rana!

Wasu daga cikin yanayi na ruble fall

Anecdotally, gani "bedstvovaniya a kamara" Rasha da kamfanonin man fetur, da loudest kira: "Wayyo! A auka daga cikin ruble! Abin da ya yi? !! "Bayan kadan karatu tattalin arziki mutane masani a gaskiyar cewa tare da kara farashin man fetur da kuma fadowa dollar" raw-kayan "fall cikin Nirvana, saboda su samun kudin shiga da aka lasafta a cikin kudin kasashen waje, da kuma kudin (a Vol. H. Kuma haraji ) - a rubles. Za reconversion: fall na ruble zama samun kudin shiga na oligarchs.

Daga cikin neproigravshih lalle ne, haƙĩƙa zama "Surgutneftegaz" - m-kasuwanci tsarin, wanda yana da wani m ainihin kudin matsayi . $ 30 biliyan Note cewa amfani, amma karami, wannan "Lukoil" da "Rosneft". Su ba za su iya kara ribar saboda ciwon gajere kudin kasashen waje payables (kudin domin ta biya zai yi saya a kan hauhawar farashin kaya rate). A manyan m of "Gazprom" shi ne wata ila don samun super-riba daga "siyasa" kara tariffs.

Darektan hikimar tantance dillancin "Alpari" Alexander Razuvaev predicts cewa a sakamakon wannan na yanzu jadawalin kuɗin fito cokali mai yatsu tsakanin farashin na man fetur (gas) da kuma haraji a rubles da babban albashi na man fetur da kuma iskar gas hadaddun zai zama 862 biliyan. Rub. tare da ƙarin kudaden shiga na 682 biliyan. Rub. A takaice, a lokacin da ruble devalued, abin da ya yi, mafi sani man fetur.

ƙarshe

Saboda haka, mai rauni ruble - ba sosai wata ãyã daga cikin rikicin, kamar yadda wani takamaiman kudi kayan aiki ga ci gaba. Yana inganta da samuwar wani monetary "aminci matashi" ga zama dole tsarin canje-canje a cikin tattalin arzikin kasar.

Yana bi da cewa ciki zuba jari albarkatun Rasha kai tsaye sanya dogara a kan ko zai yiwu a juya "ƙwace daga cikin ciki" oligarchs haddi riba generated a fadowa ruble. A kasar ta na bukatar masana'antu siyasa, jihar-gudu, niyya zuba jari na jama'a hukumomi da kuma gwamnatin, da m ci gaban da makaman nukiliya masana'antu, da kuma man gas, tsaro da tattalin arziki.